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takomaguy (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)
If global warming is the first shoe to drop, then peak oil is the second.
easonrevant (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)
Nice presentation!
spAdeman1001 (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)
I'm sure as you point out they are not linearly but cyclically related. Tertzakian has some good Real GDP vs. Consumption that correlate well is his book "1000 barrels a second". There is also the method of comparing developed to undeveloped nations - human development index vs. energy consumption per capita (2005 data) shows a logarithmic correlation with R^2=0.77.
161803 (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)
One nitpick: on the "Oil demand and GDP growth" chart, might we be seeing how GDP growth is important to bolstering oil demand, rather than the converse?
What you're trying to argue there is actually somewhat tricky to prove. The best way might be to point out the very low elasticity in gasoline demand; that is perhaps the clearest signal that the resource is essential and that substitutes are presently lacking. |
